NGX Market Summary – Friday, August 29, 2025

It was a softly negative end to the week for the Nigerian equities market as the NGX ASI closed -0.19% lower at 140,557.24, paring year-to-date gains to +35.97%. Turnover slumped sharply by -60.99% to ₦8.99 billion, mirroring thinning risk appetite and a cautious mood. Market breadth remained weak at 0.60x with more decliners (35) than advancers (21), and volume shrank by more than half from the prior session. Meanwhile, the Naira appreciated further, strengthening +0.03% to 1,536/$, offering a mild tailwind to foreign investor sentiment.

Key Market Trends & Breadth

• Market Breadth: With 21 advancers against 35 decliners, sellers remain firmly in charge—dimming the prospects for near-term broad-based recovery.
• Volume Downtrend: Today’s 357.84M shares represent a -56.4% drop from yesterday. The majority (77) of listed stocks traded lower volumes, confirming the risk-off atmosphere.
• Turnover: Institutional investors dominated, accounting for 82.2% of traded value, yet remained highly concentrated in key banking names—emphasizing rotational rather than diversified flows.
• Retail Caution: Retail traders made up 61% of trades by count but just 17.8% by value, underscoring a "watch and wait" stance.

Top Gainers & Losers – Noteworthy Moves

• VSPBONDETF (Bond ETF): Huge one-day surge (+17.76%) despite bearish 15D/50D cross and negative MACD. Contrarian alert: Big ETF flows often signal changing risk perceptions.
• UNIONDICON: RSI 75.1 puts it into overbought territory—generally a caution for momentum chasers.
• JOHNHOLT fell -10% on heavy, unusual volume (vol >2x 90D avg). Combined with low RSI and bearish 15D/50D, this hints at capitulation risk, but also potential for sharp near-term reversal.
• LEARNAFRCA: Momentum surge continues both in daily and 5-day, plus a bullish 15D/50D moving average crossover; RSI still moderate, so further upside not ruled out.

YTD Gainers & Losers – Tuesday/Wednesday Special Focus

• Momentum and low shares outstanding are driving YTD gainers—note BETAGLAS and SCOA (both with RSI near/above 96, suggesting exhaustion soon).
• Several names appear on both loss and rebound lists: SECURE ELECTRONIC TECH and GUINEAINS show dramatic medium-term bounces off Q1 lows.

Momentum Table Insights (RSI, MACD, Moving Averages)

• Bullish Momentum:
  • UNIONDICON crossing 15DMA, RSI 75 (overbought): overextension risk. Recent MACD remains positive and rising—momentum may continue briefly, but watch for reversal signals.
  • LEARNAFRCA, VSPBONDETF: Both closed above 15DMA. LEARNAFRCA has supportive RSI (57), suggesting further upside, but VSPBONDETF's negative MACD and high gain suggest it could be a short-term "blow-off” move.
  • Retail action in WEMABANK and UCAP (bullish crossovers) signals local investor optimism in select financials. Watch for follow-through.
• Bearish Momentum:
  • STERLINGNG, CWG, OANDO, UNIVINSURE: All crossed below 15DMA. OANDO has heavy institutional flow, ~5% drop, and negative MACD, confirming broad-based sector pressure.
  • UNIVINSURE is also a top loser with RSI at 60, negative price momentum, and a breaking 15DMA—a potential "momentum vacuum.”
• Unusual Volume Alerts:
  • SCOA: Traded 764% above average volume. This YTD top gainer is attracting outsized attention—possible profit-taking or repositioning.
  • VFDGROUP, NSLTECH, UNIONDICON, JOHNHOLT: These moves, especially when paired with notable price action (+/-5%), act as early "smoke signals” for reversals or breakouts.

Contrarian Signals

• VSPBONDETF: Price surges (+17.8%) despite negative momentum on MACD (-29.4), 15DMA below 50DMA, and RSI in the low 40s. This cohort action could be ETF inflows, not fundamentals. Caution for late entrants!
• LASACO: Top YTD loser but not oversold (RSI ~47), and showed heavy selling into declining long-term price trends. No reversal signal yet, but moves like this often precede "stop loss exhaustion” and can foreshadow a bounce.
• JOHNHOLT: Deep price fall (-10%) on abnormal volume; bearish momentum abounds, but these climactic sells can mark short-term washouts (oversold RSI, institutional capitulation).

Sector Heatmap

Dividend-Beta Matrix (Defensive Watchlist)

• Defensive Scans: LEARNAFRCA stands out for offering both a very high dividend (8.53%) and bullish technicals (15DMA cross, positive momentum), making it attractive for both income and momentum-oriented investors. AFRIPRUD remains the classic low beta, modest yield defensive candidate.

Institutional Clustering Alerts

• ZENITHBANK: Institutional trades dominate (20.17% of sector trade value). Both ZENITHBANK and ACCESSCORP saw outsized institutional flow, which, combined with recent price weakness, points to possible accumulated basket rotation.
• OANDO: High institutional value share, but all bearish signals (price, MACD, 15DMA). If price stabilizes, a short squeeze remains possible.

Stocks with High Dividend Yields & Technical Momentum

• LEARNAFRCA: A unique blend—8.53% yield, bullish momentum and low beta. This rare combination often outperforms defensive benchmarks in sideways to bearish markets.
• UCAP & WEMABANK: Both with 5%+ yield, moderate volatility, and bullish technicals—opportunities for both income and capital gain seekers.

Trader Suggestions & Outlook

• Momentum Chasers: Be disciplined—chasing names like UNIONDICON (RSI 75) carries reversal risk. Use trailing stops.
• Income Seekers: Focus on LEARNAFRCA, UCAP, and AFRIPRUD—especially the first two, which currently also enjoy technical upside.
• Contrarians: Watch for exhaustion and possible sharp bounce in JOHNHOLT, OANDO, and the insurance sub-sector after outsized volume/capitulation moves.
• Rotation Alert: Heavy institutional action in the Banking sector suggests coming "mean reversion” swings in key banks—buy incrementally into heavy institutional sell-offs for medium-term rebounds.
• Caution: Overall breadth and turnover are weak. Position size prudently.

Market Activity/Trade Summaries Insights

• Retail vs Institutional: Institutional investors drove 82.16% of total value (₦8.54B out of ₦8.99B), dominating volume (57.6%) vs retail’s just 17.84% of value. Retail dominated trade count (61.06%).
• TOP 5 Most Traded by Institutional Investors: ZENITHBANK, ACCESSCORP, GTCO, MTNN, OANDO – all blue-chip financials/oil with heavy institutional interest and most also near 5-day lows. Their weak momentum plus heavy institutional action signals sector rotation or "smart money" positioning for future reversals.
• TOP 5 Most Traded by Retail Investors: ZENITHBANK, ACCESSCORP, GTCO, MTNN, UBA – mostly mirrors institutional picks, but UBA's retail popularity outpaces institutional action; may be an emerging retail-led rebound candidate.
• Institutions are clustering and concentrating risk in large banks amid declining prices, suggesting late-stage sector risk-off behaviour which often sets the stage for a base formation and eventual rally. Retail is adapting by trading nimbly in similar names but in far smaller volumes.

Summary of Hidden Insights

• Major ETF flows (VSPBONDETF) could foreshadow allocation rebalancing or portfolio "insurance,” often a leading indicator before a market pivot.
• High dividend/low beta pairs (LEARNAFRCA, UCAP) are emerging as the new "market defensives” amid breadth weakness.
• Unusual volume spikes are flashing contrarian potential in recently pummelled names (SCOA, JOHNHOLT) and momentum exhaustion in YTD leaders.
• Sector heatmap reveals Insurance is losing steam; Diversified Industries are attracting speculative attention.